What Happens as the Number of San Francisco Police Officers Dwindle?

By Rich Cibotti

The late theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking once said, “You cannot predict the future.” While I do agree with the statement’s premise, some future events seem to be more of an inevitability, rather than a prediction. As I discussed in my last article, the San Francisco Police Department staffing continues to fall and without immediate intervention, I believe it will die.

According to the latest numbers I was provided, the SFPD has 1639 full duty sworn members in the City. Adding the Airport’s staffing brings our grand total, of full duty sworn, to under 1800 members. Our numbers are usually quoted around 2100 sworn members, however those include everyone on military leave, family leave, disability, suspensions, and modified duty. The true total number is creeping closer to just 2000.

Now, with our current recruit classes potentially adding only 35 to our officer ranks, if people keep flowing out, 1639 will be a high-water mark. What happens when we go below 1600?

SO WHAT IS OUR FUTURE?

First, there may need to be serious talk about not responding to many of our “C” priority calls. This would probably include most cold reports and noise complaint type calls. This would need to be done just so officers are available for emergency calls. Those calls would be transitioned to reporting by phone or online. Not exactly the police service residents will be used to or expect for their tax dollars.

The next step would be closing or consolidating police stations. If we do not have the staffing to properly fill stations, keeping them open is unsafe. This is typically a very unpopular idea with residents, but “Defunding” has created irreparable harm and this is one of the consequences as members flee the SFPD.

If stations are not going to be closed, we may need to consider giving up the Airport to another agency. A very unpopular idea, since it currently has the longest transfer request list, but if we cannot effectively respond to calls and provide police services to the City, it would be hard to justify maintaining the Airport (other than the money it provides the SFPD). The members from the Airport could be used to fill vacancies at the district stations.

These are not far-fetched future alarmist visions. I think these are real decisions command must already be (or at least should be) talking about now. If not now, then very soon, or maybe this article makes them consider it sooner rather than later. It’s always better to be prepared than to try and get ready.

I would say the last resort idea comes after those have been tried and we cannot arrest the falling numbers. Then I think we’re left with the only remaining option, merging with the Sheriff’s Department. Although it may seem outlandish, look at Las Vegas. The Las Vegas Metro Police Department is a result of the merging of two departments. It would take time and there would be lots of changes, but it is something that may become, yet again, inevitable.

COST OF DOING NOTHING

Doing nothing has gotten us into our current predicament. For years, anyone on patrol could see the dwindling numbers and knew it was a major issue. Myself and others saw the upcoming retirement cliff coming. It is simple math that we will need to hire 200 people a year, minimum, to try and limit the impact of 1994 Crime Bill hires as they retire over the next 2-4 years. Not to try and overcome it, just to limit the damage of their losses. Yet no one seems to have done anything about these issues.

A frequent complaint from patrol, about those who command, is they are unwilling to make a decision. Like the band Rush’s song “Freewill” said:

“If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.”

We can keep making no decisions and pretending there is no problem, but that choice still leaves us reacting, instead of any forward vision or planning. A visionary leader is needed to hold the line and start turning things around, but a Command Staff full of managers, not leaders, will not cut it.

The Criminology and Public Policy Journal1 published a study in 2021, which studied retention in the wake of the George Floyd protests. The study analyzed turnover data from January 2016 to December 2020. Initially, the study noted, “Police agencies often turn to increased monetary compensation to combat increased turnover” and found that strategy is effective. But further into the study they found, “Other key factors driving police turnover include loss of trust and confidence in leadership…and sustained negative attention.”

The most striking, and in this author’s opinion spot on, excerpt from the study was this:

“If an officer uses force to protect themselves or someone else, following the legal and professional standards they have been trained to, but then experience backlash from their leaders or the public, a perception of inequity may result. In such a case, this may reduce an officer’s motivation to remain a police officer (or at least remain a police officer in a specific jurisdiction), as it increases their chances of experiencing negative costs (Mourtgos et al., 2020).”

The study then concluded that, “A loss of perceived organizational support is linked to an officer’s organizational commitment, job satisfaction, burnout, and turnover intention.”

In other words, the study found that when leaders do not create an environment where the officers feel safe to do their job, they will leave. The study is not talking about the inherent danger of the job here, that risk is known and calculated. Or as someone once told me, when you are more worried about being stabbed in the back, rather than the fight in the front of you, that’s a problem.

WHAT CAN BE DONE?

The first immediate action needs to be new money. Yes, we do have raises coming in July, but we need to try and stop the bleeding now, not in 5 months. An immediate raise of 5% or more may cause some of those who are already in backgrounds for other agencies, or planning to move, to reconsider.

However, money doesn’t solve problems. I would equate money to the infomercials for Flex Seal. Sure, if you have a roof leak you’ll slap it on to stop the flow, but you are not going to reroof your house with Flex Seal.

We will still have major issues to deal with from cumbersome policy to the current District Attorney situation, but money buys time. It will be expensive, but money needs to come now to help buy time and keep people here. Think of it more as the bill to cover the true cost of all those non-decisions, and the bill is overdue.

POTENTIAL OPTIONS

As Command members and political leaders continue to defer decisions, the options available become smaller and the window to implement them becomes narrower.

Once the palatable, formerly tried strategies, have been exhausted or lapsed, we are only left with radical and even experimental decisions to try and fix the issue. One such solution may need to be embracing schedules or work hours that seem crazy or once thought unbelievable.

A couple a years ago waiting for our third daughter to be born, my wife had to spend some time in the hospital. Most of our nurses had a southern drawl. I asked about it and found out that a bunch of them lived in North Carolina. They all rented an apartment together and used it as a crash pad. Each would work about a week a month in San Francisco and then return home to North Carolina until the next month’s work week.

Right now, a growing number of cops are living far away, a few sleeping on couches during their work week, and some even coming from other states, or many states over. They are on borrowed time, and could choose to cut the cord when the travel and family obligations finally become too much. But instead of losing 100% of that cop what if we only lose 50-75%? What if the department embraces the “super commute” cops and makes it so they can still work, albeit not traditional schedules? Will it solve the issue, absolutely not. But again, it could allow us to hold onto some who would otherwise leave. Like the nurses discussed above, maybe allowing cops to come in to work schedules similar to the National Guard or Reservists could help keep some around a little longer. Maybe it extends some members time in San Francisco, and maybe it extends some members’ retirement dates. Scheduling will be interesting, to say the least, but this is where indecision has gotten us.

No decisions will lead to more and more cops choosing to kick those fears of leaving the profession and making their own choice. Or more eloquently stated in the end of the chorus to “Freewill”:

“You can choose from phantom fears

And kindness that can kill

I will choose a path that’s clear

I will choose free will.”

Be safe

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1 https://www.hoplofobia.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2021-Elevated-police-turnover-following-the-summer-of-George-Floyd-protests.pdf