The Raises are Coming, The Raises are Coming…Not Really
On April 18, 1775, Paul Revere took his “Midnight Ride” around Boston to warn of the coming British Invasion. Revere’s midnight ride allowed the colonists to prepare for the fight ahead, and the later battles at Lexington and Concord. For the past going on four years, I have been writing about our staffing crisis and the department’s continued downward slide.
Recently, there has been a lot of talk about the upcoming new contract between the police department and the City. Crazy rumors have been swirling around about 10-20-30 or more percentage increases. Per the usual arrangement, these talks are completely secret, which really just allows rumors to fester, relatively unchecked.
Well not to be a naysayer, but if you think the huge raise is going to come save us all, I’ve got bad news: It isn’t going to happen.
WHY NOT?
The City is heading into very large financial woes. Current estimates show a $728 million deficit for this year, which balloons to $1.22 billion by 2027. It seems every time we’re due for a raise these fiscal problems arise for the city. I remember in 2009 voting against deferring raises even though I could be one of the people laid off. Every time contract time comes the City can cry poor and magically our bigger raise becomes a smaller, or deferred raise. However, this time is different, this time the City is actually going broke. The City is sliding down the path, I’ve been saying for years now, toward becoming Detroit.
WHY IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT?
Everyone seems to have “memory holed” what happened in 2020/2021. The City was projecting an over $600 million deficit. Covid killed tourism and “mask hysteria” gripped the City, keeping workers at home and depleting City coffers. The same worries discussed above we’re starting to fester. But then like magic, it all went away. How is that possible?
Well on January 20, 2021, President Biden was sworn in as the 46th President. He and his Democrat controlled Congress spent a boatload of money bailing out places, one of which being, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s home district. Just like that, $660 million was sent to fill City coffers, under the guise of Covid relief, and all the red ink turned to black.
Like a college kid who maxed out their first credit card and couldn’t afford the payments, the US government came in and paid off all the city government mismanagement. Typically, the college kid learns a lesson about credit and debt and decides not to spend like that again. But no such lesson here. SF leaders didn’t tighten the belt, they didn’t start cutting extraneous or underperforming programs. Those type of actions would’ve been prudent from serious leadership. But we don’t have prudent or serious leadership in San Francisco.
Instead money kept being spent, and pet projects kept being funded. All the while, businesses packed up and moved to more friendly environs. Tech stayed working from home, making downtown a ghost town. And according to the Hoover Institution, from 2019-2021 an estimated 6-7% of residents left San Francisco, taking $7 billion of household income with them.[1]
The City squandered the bailout and did nothing in the past two years to prepare for the obvious looming fiscal cliff. The Board of Supervisors and the Mayor did not start making tough decisions, or cutting vestigial programs to prepare for the decline of San Francisco. Instead, they decided that hope was the plan. They hoped the City would rebound. They hoped that workers would head back to the office. They hoped that tech would still drive the economy. They hoped that tourism and conventions would come roaring back and fill up the piggy bank once more.
WHAT COULD WE HAVE DONE?
Shortly after the bailout was announced, I proposed (to those who would listen) we should do whatever we could do to get a contract extension immediately, while the City had money on the books. It was our chance to get our raises we desperately needed, and to try and stem the tide of our own staffing crisis.
But we missed our shot, (or did not take one) and now we will try to scrape by with a couple percent base wage increase, most of which will probably be deferred in hopes of a brighter financial future down the line. Either way it will not come close to touching the forty-year high rate of inflation, which persists at over 6%. Sadly, this effectively means that whatever pittance of a raise we do get, is in reality still a pay cut, as our wages are not keeping with the rate of inflation.
WHAT NOW?
Since 2021, the political situation has also changed. Although some refuse to let the Covid emergency end for their own political power, it’s over. Emergency money is not going to happen. Also, the House of Representatives is under new management, and I don’t see them signing off on another nine or ten figure San Francisco bailout.
The prevailing rumor floating around is the Mayor told the POA she cannot get a big contract past the Board of Supervisors, so we should prepare for arbitration. This would not be shocking and may be our best bet.
Budgets should reflect priorities, and based on the number of cops leaving, the City may need to reprioritize the SFPD in the budget if they want to continue having a police department. If the Board of Supervisors is unwilling to do so, then maybe arbitration is the only way to go. However, I do not see an arbiter granting an enormous sum for our new contract, that’s not usually how arbitration works.
Another rumor is that we proposed ten percent raises each year for three years, so a 30% increase over 3 years. While this would be a big help, the rumor is the City responded with 2/2/2 or 6% over 3 years. This number falls far below anything that will help retaining current members, or recruiting new ones.
However, both of these rumors have one thing in common, the idea of some massive increase, is far-fetched or not in the cards.
LASTLY
I sincerely hope I am wrong in my assessment of the situation. I hope a huge payout is coming and our wages rise to meet our comparable agencies in the area. I hope that we get a big enough raise that cops want to stay in the SFPD, and it attracts more people to join. I hope that the raises make it worth dealing with all of the political nonsense that has been injected into policework in San Francisco. I hope we can get back to doing our jobs, stopping crime, and serving the residents of San Francisco.
But the Board of Supervisors and the Mayor had lots of hopes too. Hope is not a plan and their hopes are what got us here.
[1] https://www.hoover.org/research/san-francisco-falls-abyss
It seems the Mayor London Breed has a plan to deal with the “unprecedented police staffing shortage” which she claims she has no idea why its happening (while she defunds it). It seems her plan is to defund the police, then ask the Federal Government to Police the City or fund her Police?
Breed wrote, “As you know, we are dealing with multiple serious public safety challenges locally, from a fentanyl-driven overdose epidemic, open-air drug dealing, property crime in our commercial and residential neighborhoods, increasing gun violence and prejudiced fueled incidents.”
She added, “While San Francisco is doing everything it can to address these public safety challenges, we are in the midst of an unprecedented police staffing shortage and we need help from the federal government.”
"Our local law enforcement is doing its best to enforce against drug dealing, however, the scale of the problem is beyond our local capacity. We need additional and ongoing support from the Department of Justice to arrest and prosecute drug dealers.”
TPTB want to turn San Fransicko into a “15 minute city”...mark my words. I’m sure all the politicians and decision makers have already been paid off. Just like they were paid off with CONvid...the greatest wealth transfer. in modern history. If you think these demons give a damn about your contract, or making SF better, may I interest you in waterfront property in the Sahara?
I’m a 3rd generation, (forced) retired deputy of 23 years.