This article was also published on the Epoch Times on February 24, 2022.

It’s beyond time to start asking some very hard questions and demanding some actual answers, not crafted talking points.

It’s no secret the past few years have not been kind to policing across the United States. Retention of qualified officers has been a real issue for many departments. But why has San Francisco been losing so many cops?

We have both a recruitment and a retention problem. We are in the throes of a death spiral from which we may not be able to pull out.

Currently we have two classes in the Academy, which combined total only 35 new recruits. Over the next couple of weeks, the department plans to promote a rumored 35 new Sergeants. While I agree we need some more Sergeants, promoting more people will be taking from the officer rank without anyone to replace them.

According to an email from the Chief to the Mayor our success rate from recruit to officer passing FTO is 67%. So, although we have 35 in the Academy, we most likely will end up with around 24 cops. Don’t forget these classes of 20ish each were meant to have 55 each, but we cannot attract anyone.

In addition to no one coming in the front door, we have plenty of cops choosing to walk out the exit door. Not including the 43 cops that left, or are in the process of being released due to the vaccine mandate, there are around 40 that are on approved leave that may choose to not come back rather than get vaccinated.

Sorry if I spoil the hopes and dreams of management, but a lot of them are not coming back either. Those losses alone will eliminate years of any hiring gains we have made. It turns out when the Chief says you are replaceable, that is only true if there are people there to replace you.

No one seems to be too concerned about the retirement cliff that’s quickly approaching. Currently there are over 400 members who have both 25 years of service and are over age 50. They can leave right after reading this article, and there is nothing the department can do. We have just under 2100 sworn members between the City and the Airport, 1665 if were only counting the City. If 400 leave tomorrow, we would be at 1700 total. Forget specialized units or promotions, at that point handing calls would be a problem.

However, this still does not address the cliff that’s coming due to the 1994 Crime Bill hiring. There are over 500 members that were hired as a result of the 1994 Crime Bill. Starting in 2024 all of them will be coming into their maximum retirement benefit. From 2024-2026 all 500 will likely retire since they will be topped out at their full 90% pension.

What are we doing to address that? We should be hiring 200 cops a year just to try and replace those upcoming losses. Instead were hiring around 40 a year, which does not even cover our promotions, let alone cops choosing to walk away altogether.

Looking over the past personnel orders, we are losing 5-10 cops a month. Leading to an average of 7.5 cops a month leaving the department. Unfortunately, the most recent order had 17 cops leave, which will bump up the average. The longer we wait for anything to change, the more people will leave. On June 30 and then July 1 of this year we will get two raises, that will increase our base wage by 5%. Anyone considering leaving must already have factored that into their calculations. This means any package offered that may work at keeping people, must include additional new money raises. However, as every day passes, more and more are steadily flowing out. The longer decision makers take, the fewer people they will have at their disposal. If nothing happens before those raises in July, and our average remains at 7.5 cops leaving, we could be short another 38 cops by raise time. If the average continues to rise, well then 38 cops could be the low end of our problems.

I have been telling people for a while now to always have an exit plan. Always be ready to leave this place because we don’t know what could happen that makes working here impossible. I hope everyone has started planning…because the SFPD is dying…and unless an enormous shift or change occurs…there will be nothing left.

Or maybe we are just destined to go out the way of the famous T.S. Eliot poem The Hollow Men:

“This is the way the world ends…Not with a bang but a whimper.”

*Also published in the SFPOA Journal February 2022

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The SFPD is Dying and No One Seems to Care